The simple definition
The Oracle Score is a numeric rating that measures your prediction skill. It's the equivalent of the Elo rating in chess or Glicko in competitive games.
Why "Oracle"?
An oracle is someone who predicts the future. The Oracle Score measures how good an oracle you are. The higher your score, the more you've proven your ability to predict correctly.
A few reference points:
- Starting score: 1,000 points (granted automatically to all new users).
- Typical beginner: between 800 and 1,200 points.
- Regular predictor: between 1,200 and 1,800 points.
- Worldwide top 1000: generally above 2,000 points.
- Top 100: above 2,500 points.
- Top 10: above 3,000 points.
- Current platform record: ~4,200 points (a Cameroonian user who's an expert in African politics).
The more predictions you make and the more correct they are, the higher your score climbs. The more you're wrong, the more it drops.
The basic formula
The exact calculation formula is complex (it factors in the event's difficulty, the timing bonus, the event multiplier, etc.) and is explained in detail in the next article. But here's the simple version:
If you predict correctly:
- You earn between +5 and +50 points depending on the event's difficulty.
- The harder the event (few people predicted your side), the more points you earn.
- If you had bonuses (early, multiplier), they're added as a percentage.
If you're wrong:
- You lose between -2 and -15 points.
- You lose fewer points than you could have earned. That's deliberate: we encourage taking part rather than avoiding predictions out of fear of losing.
Concrete example:
- You predict "Real Madrid wins" on a medium-difficulty event (3/5), with no bonuses.
- Real Madrid actually wins. You receive +20 Oracle points.
- If Barcelona had won, you would have lost -8 Oracle points.
This asymmetry (earning more than you lose) is what makes the Oracle Score "progressive" for those who predict regularly and reasonably well.
Overall Oracle Score vs theme-based
In reality, you don't have a single Oracle Score, but several:
1. Overall Oracle Score: your total score across all themes. It's the one that mainly appears on your profile and in the overall leaderboard.
2. Theme-based Oracle Scores: a separate score per theme (Sports, Politics, Crypto, Culture, Science, Economy).
Example:
- Marie has an overall Oracle Score of 1,850.
- But looking at her theme-based scores:
- Sports: 2,200 (excellent)
- Politics: 1,950 (very good)
- Crypto: 1,400 (average)
- Culture: 800 (weak - she predicts at random)
This breakdown lets you see your real strengths. Marie is clearly an expert in sports and politics, but should avoid predicting in culture (or work on it).
You can see your theme-based scores in Profile → Prediction Stats → By theme.
How your score evolves over time
Your Oracle Score is not frozen. It changes with every event resolution:
- You predict correctly: your score climbs by +5 to +50 points.
- You predict wrong: your score drops by -2 to -15 points.
- The event is canceled: your score doesn't move (no gain, no loss).
- You didn't predict the event: no impact (Prediction Mode is optional).
Inactivity decay. If you haven't predicted for 90 days, your score starts to decay very slowly (-5 points per month of inactivity, capped at -100 points max). This is to prevent old inactive accounts from blocking the top spots on the leaderboard.
If you come back after a period of inactivity, the decay stops immediately and your score starts evolving normally again.