How are points calculated?

The full formula in detail

Here is the full formula:

Points earned = base × difficulty × consensus × timing × event_multiplier × streak
Points lost = loss_base × difficulty

Variables:

• base: 10 points (a constant - the "going rate" for a standard correct prediction).
• loss_base: 5 points (half the base - the loss is 2x smaller than the gain).
• difficulty: factor between 0.5 and 5.0 depending on the event's difficulty (1 = neutral).
• consensus: factor between 0.8 and 2.0 (1 = neutral, 2.0 if you predicted against 90% of the community).
• timing: factor between 1.0 and 1.5 depending on when you predicted (see deadlines and timing).
• event_multiplier: 1.0, 1.5 or 2.0 depending on whether the event is featured.
• streak: factor between 1.0 and 1.5 depending on your recent run of correct predictions.

Maximal example: you correctly predict a hard event (3.0), fully against the crowd (2.0), 30 days in advance (1.2), a featured event (1.5), with a streak of 10 correct predictions (1.20).

Points = 10 × 3.0 × 2.0 × 1.2 × 1.5 × 1.20 = 130 points

That's a rare but possible case. Most of the time, you earn between 10 and 30 points per correct prediction.

The difficulty factor

An event's difficulty is calculated by our system when the event opens, based on several indicators:

• The gap between the two sides' odds in the Arena (if the event also exists there).
• The percentage of expert predictors who agree (low agreement = high difficulty).
• The event type (a political referendum is often harder than a soccer match).

Visible scale:

• 1/5 - Very easy: overwhelming favorite, unanimous predictors. Factor 0.5. You earn little (~5 points) if correct.
• 2/5 - Easy: clear favorite. Factor 0.8. ~8 points if correct.
• 3/5 - Medium: balanced, slight preference. Factor 1.0. ~10 points if correct.
• 4/5 - Hard: very uncertain, divided opinions. Factor 2.0. ~20 points if correct.
• 5/5 - Extreme: 50/50 even for experts. Factor 3.0. ~30 points if correct.

The consensus factor (daring to go against the majority)

If you predict with the majority and you're right, it's expected - you earn the base points.

If you predict against the majority and you're right, it's more impressive - consensus bonus:

• 51-60% of predictors agree with you: factor 1.0 (neutral).
• 40-50% agree with you (slightly in the minority): factor 1.2.
• 20-40% agree with you (minority): factor 1.5.
• 10-20% agree with you (deep minority): factor 1.8.
• Less than 10% agree with you (ultra-minority): factor 2.0.

Example: 95% of predictors went with "Real Madrid wins." You predict "Barcelona wins" - fully against the crowd. If Barcelona actually wins, you get the maximum consensus factor (2.0).

The logic: predicting correctly with the consensus is following the crowd. Predicting correctly against the crowd demonstrates real independent expertise. We reward the latter more.

Combined multipliers

The different factors multiply together. That's what makes ultra-profitable predictions possible if you stack the bonuses.

Typical case of a big prediction:

You predict "Minister X will resign within the month":

• Difficulty 4/5 (politically complex) → factor 2.0
• You're at 15% of the consensus → factor 1.8
• You predict 25 days in advance → factor 1.2
• Featured event due to political tension → multiplier 1.5
• You're on a streak of 5 correct predictions → factor 1.10

Points = 10 × 2.0 × 1.8 × 1.2 × 1.5 × 1.10 = 71 points

If you predict correctly, you make a big leap up the leaderboard. If you're wrong, you only lose about 10 points (protective asymmetry).

This mechanic is what makes Prediction Mode strategically interesting: you have to know how to take calculated risks on the right events.