The prediction window
An event is open for prediction as soon as we publish it on the platform - often several weeks before it takes place.
Example: an Africa Cup of Nations match happening in 3 weeks is probably already available for prediction. You can predict right now.
The window is:
- Start: publication of the event (days/weeks/months ahead).
- End: 30 seconds before the official start.
You can predict at any point in this window. And you can edit your prediction as many times as you want within this window (see the previous article).
The "early predictor" bonus
To reward those who commit early despite the uncertainty, predictions made well in advance receive a points bonus if they're correct.
Typical scale:
- More than 7 days before the event: +20% points if your prediction is correct.
- Between 3 and 7 days before: +10%.
- Between 1 and 3 days before: no bonus.
- Less than 24h before: no bonus.
Concrete example: you predict "Argentina wins the World Cup" 1 year in advance (even before the group draw). If Argentina actually wins, your early bonus will be massive (+50% or more for ultra-early predictions). That's what makes long-term predictions interesting.
The "last-minute prediction" bonus
Conversely, predictions made just before the deadline receive a small bonus too, to reward those who make tactical decisions based on the freshest information.
Scale:
- Between 1h and 24h before: no bonus.
- Less than 1h before: +5%.
- Less than 5 minutes before: +10%.
The logic: predicting at the last minute requires attention and availability. It's also a signal of active engagement with the platform. So we reward it slightly.
Note: these bonuses apply at resolution time, on the points won. If you're wrong, no penalty - just no bonus.
Which timing strategy to adopt
There's no universal "best strategy". It depends on your profile:
Strategy 1 - The early predictor.
You make lots of very long-term predictions (weeks/months). You accept that the info changes and that you're wrong more often, but when you win, the bonus is big.
Risk: you're wrong more frequently. If you predict "Bitcoin > 200K within 1 year" and it crashes, you lose points. But if you win, the +20-50% bonus more than makes up for it.
Strategy 2 - The tactical predictor.
You make your predictions 1-3 days before the event, when you already have all the key info (team lineup, weather, injuries, recent polls). No early or late bonus, but more accuracy.
Benefit: higher success rate, more stable score.
Strategy 3 - The last-minute sniper.
You predict in the final minutes, based on the freshest information. Small late bonus, and you take advantage of "last minute" announcements (player injuries, political reversals).
Requires: being available and connected to the platform regularly.
Strategy 4 - The mix.
Most expert predictors use a blend. Very early predictions for long-term events with strong conviction. Tactical predictions for well-known short-term events. No universal rule.