The 6 available event categories
Sports (the largest): soccer (Champions League, national leagues, AFCON), basketball (NBA, EuroLeague), tennis (ATP, WTA, Grand Slam), boxing, MMA, Formula 1, African sports.
Politics: presidential and legislative elections around the world, no-confidence motions, referendums, international agreements.
Crypto & finance: BTC/ETH/altcoin prices at specific dates, threshold crossings, exchange bankruptcies, crypto ETFs.
Culture & society: awards (Oscars, Grammys, Ballon d'Or), competition results (Miss, Mister), box-office success of movies/series, album sales.
Science & technology: Apple/Google/Tesla product announcements, SpaceX launch successes, major scientific discoveries.
Economy: central bank policy rates, stock indices, unemployment rates, GDP growth.
Typical volume: between 200 and 500 events open at any time, spread across these 6 categories. Sports events represent ~60% of the volume.
The indicators for evaluating an event
On each event, you see several indicators before predicting:
1. Popularity (number of predictors).
"127 predictors on this event" = very popular, lots of community attention, fast resolution guaranteed.
"3 predictors on this event" = niche, maybe still little known.
2. Difficulty (1-5 scale).
Difficulty 1 = obvious event (overwhelming favorite). Difficulty 5 = ultra-uncertain event (50/50 even for experts). Choose according to your ambition.
3. Split percentage.
"68% of predictors picked Real Madrid wins, 32% Barcelona wins". That gives you the community consensus. You can follow it or go against the grain based on your analysis.
4. Expert rate.
"Top 100 of the Oracle leaderboard: 72% predict Real Madrid wins". If the experts agree with the community, it's probably right. If they diverge, that's an interesting signal.
5. Time until resolution.
"Match in 3 hours" vs "Election in 6 months". Short-term events give you quick points, long-term events require patience.
6. Points multiplier.
"This event gives 1.5x the normal points". Some events are highlighted by our teams (big matches, major elections, finals) and give more points. Prioritize them to boost your score.
The types of events to avoid at first
1. Ultra-specialized events.
If you know nothing about chess, don't predict the world chess championship final. You'd predict at random, lose points, learn nothing.
2. Very long-term events.
A prediction on "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?" is interesting but locks your points up for years. To start, focus on events 1-7 days out.
3. Events without public information.
Some niche events rely on sources you don't have. For example, "Will minister X resign before June?" - without a political information source, you're predicting blindly.
4. Very high difficulty events (5/5).
Difficulty 5 = 50/50 even for experts. You predict, you have a 50% chance of winning - might as well flip a coin. Save these events for when you want pure challenge.
Selection strategies based on your profile
If you're a soccer fan: focus 80% on soccer events, 20% on something else. You'll build expertise fast.
If you follow the news: politics and economy are your natural domains. You already have the info in your daily reading.
If you're curious about everything: mix it up. Predict in every category to discover which one speaks to you most. Over time, you'll notice where you're good.
If you want to maximize your leaderboard position: focus on multiplier events (1.5x or 2x), medium-difficulty events (3/5), and stay within your 2-3 strong themes.